Friday, February 27, 2015


Friday February 27

 The hope & dream for improving the west coast snow pack will have to wait.

 Earlier expectation for a possible 'winter slap' across the PNW is now removed.  It will be frosty, when the cold, NE wind settles down on both sides of the Cascades. First shot arrives later Friday, with a brisk wind from the north turning on later Saturday.  The Second shot (which we thought would have the most impact), but still enough of a glance to bring brisk conditions after a few showers Mon/Tue. FROSTY overnight everywhere the wind ceases. Temps in the upper 20s; colder to the east.

 By Monday morning, the upper-air flow will begin to shift back to the northwest, calming the east winds and warming up the region for a day, Tue. Unfortunately, it is likely to remain DRY until the weekend of Mar 7,8. Even then, it will not get super wet. Warm front from the SW will usher in some showers.

 For the week of Mar 9-13, expect a wet period, with - hopefully - lowering freezing levels and a decent shot of mountain snow.

 For all concerned about the potential winter slap next week and the impact on agriculture, the near miss will be gladly accepted. Still, we will miss the much needed snow in the mountains.


Saturday, February 7, 2015


RAIN. A strong upper-level 'steering wind' continues to drive relatively warm, moisture laden air right into the PNW. Multiple inches of rain have already fallen across a large swath of the region. Flooding has been minimal because of the breaks in the steady rainfall. The heaviest rain remain on track to arrive between Friday and Monday afternoon. Anywhere from an additional 2-4 inches possible for western valley locations and upwards of 7-8 inches of rain in coastal mountains & western slopes of the Cascades is likely.

WIND. A few more 'waves' of surface systems will brush onshore over the weekend, two of which will generate strong wind fields as they move onshore: the first late Saturday, the second late Sunday, early Monday. The Sunday storm is progged to be one of the strongest of the fall/winter season for western Oregon. Potential for a 16-20 mb pressure difference between Eureka & Astoria early Monday morning would generate a significant wind event, even for inland valley locations. PLEASE be prepared for possible power outages. Soils will be like pudding; firs may fall.

DRY. After the Sun/Mon storm spins inland, conditions will rapidly dry out, with periods of warm sunshine and possible FOG (esp Wed morning). The dry, high pressure ridge pattern is likely to hold on through Valentine's Day weekend.